Aluminum futures rose to over $2,670 per tonne, extending the surge since hitting a four-month low of $2,490 on January 6th, supported by expectations of lower supply from key producers and respite for demand. The EU was set to sanction the import of primary aluminum from Russia in its upcoming package, consolidating the phase out of metal from the country as manufacturers have self-shunned from buying Russian goods following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In turn, China produced a record high 44 million tons of aluminum in 2024, meaning that output will be forced to slow as Beijing capped output at the 45 million tons in 2017 to prevent excess supply and aid carbon emission targets. On the demand side, industrial output in China accelerated sharply in December and credit aggregates gained traction, indicating that the aggressive monetary stimulus that the PBoC had passed is starting to make an impact in economic activity.

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